Harley-Davidson raises 2026 sales forecast as turnaround begins to gather pace

Harley-Davidson has raised its full-year global motorcycle sales forecast after posting a stronger-than-expected second quarter. The move goes some way to validating recent claims that its turnaround strategy may finally be starting to gain traction.

The American brand now expects to sell between 133,500 and 138,500 motorcycles globally in 2026, up from its previous guidance of 130,000 to 135,000 units, after North American retail sales outperformed expectations during the second quarter.

It's a notable update, not least because it comes just days after investment firm Loop Capital upgraded Harley-Davidson's stock from Neutral to Buy. At the time, the firm said dealer feedback suggested the company's 'Back to the Bricks' strategy was beginning to have a meaningful impact, leading Loop Capital to predict stronger sales alongwith improved profitability through 2027.

This latest earnings report doesn't mean Harley's problems have disappeared, but it does suggest those analysts may have spotted the trend before the company formally acknowledged it.

During the second quarter, Harley's global motorcycle retail sales rose by 0.5 per cent to around 42,500 bikes, with North America, unsurprisingly doing most of the heavy lifting. Sales in the region climbed 3.1 per cent to 29,888 motorcycles, comfortably offsetting weaker performances elsewhere.

Europe, though, continues to be Harley’s biggest concern. Sales across Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) fell by around 9 per cent, leaving the region well behind North America. Chief executive Artie Starrs admitted the business isn't where Harley wants it to be, describing Europe as a challenging market and saying the company was "not satisfied" with its performance there.

Harley's struggles in Europe also come against the backdrop of a market that is showing signs of recovery. Figures released this week by ACEM, the European Association of Motorcycle Manufacturers, revealed that registrations across Europe's five biggest motorcycle markets, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK, rose by 3.3 per cent during the first half of 2026, with more than 636,000 new motorcycles registered. While growth wasn't universal across every country, the figures suggest demand for new bikes remains healthy overall, making Harley-Davidson's nine per cent decline in the EMEA region look more like a brand-specific challenge than one caused by the wider market.

Tariffs also continue to cast a shadow over the business. Harley says it's investing further in its US manufacturing operations to reduce the impact of import duties, although Starrs acknowledged those changes will take both time and money before they begin to pay off.

Financially, the picture was mixed. Revenue fell 5.9 per cent to $1.23 billion, while net income dropped from $107.6 million to $79.8 million compared with the same period last year. However, earnings still beat Wall Street expectations, coming in at 75 cents per share against forecasts of 64 cents.

Investors appeared unconvinced by the broader picture, with Harley's share price falling almost six per cent following the announcement. Even so, the stock remains around 27 per cent higher than it was at the start of the year, suggesting confidence in the longer-term recovery story hasn't disappeared.

For riders, none of this changes the bikes sitting in Harley dealerships today – bikes which for many remain too expensive, heavy and not fit for their needs. That said, if the Back to Bricks strategy delivers the new, lightweight and affordable bikes that people are buying in Europe, Harley’s poor performance in the region could swing the other way. 

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