A regards electric vehicles being new tech...Not strictly true, electric vehicles were running before internal combustion and the technology is extremely mature. There has been a pressing need for high torque high efficiency electric motors for over 100 years and the technology was extremely important during both world wars...Lives depended on efficient motors and good battery charge density and longevity...Can we say 'Submarine'!
What has transformed the electric motor has been the use of rare earth magnets. That's why you now get electric flying toy planes and helicopters. There are however RARE earths...i.e. not common...
What hasn't changed significantly enough is the charge density of the battery. Yes, Li Ion is better than lead Acid, but not by that much and the technology is mature, there are only relatively small increments in performance improvement. a new technology leaps forward...Look at powered flight from 1903 to 1918 for instance. from the first flight to the Sopwith Camel, or a mere 22 years later the first jet flight...THAT's how fast an emerging technology advances. The original '90's Honda Insight hybrid is still the most efficient production hybrid car ever made and that tech is 15 years old now. My 2000 Panasonic Electric bike again is slightly better now than it was when made because it has a better battery, but it isn't a HUGE difference.
What IS of concern is the longevity of these EV's. I drive a 23 year old turbo-diesel. It gets a steady 55 mpg and it has done around 300,000 miles. The point being it is 23 years old. How many batteries would a 23 year old EV have used to get there...4 sets...At what cost environmentally..?
Fuel cells...Hmm...Ever costed the process of extraction hydrogen on a mass scale?
While EV's make some kind of sense in a society where we discard our possessions every 5 years or so on a whim (or because manufacturers build the quality down to ensure the product is living on borrowed time past it's warranty) there is some kind of parity, but it is quite feasible to build a diesel car (running if it likes on fuel grown from plants) which would last literally for the lifetime of the owner or longer ...galavanised steels, decent bearings in suspension parts, and so on and over longer periods of time, there is no way on earth an EV's power source would be able to match that...The best batteries in the world are found in subs...they have a 20 year life span and are built to quality levels you simply couldn't afford (or economically actually move around!) in a car...the quantity and purity of lead alone in each cell would make the cost prohibitive, and modern lightwight rare earth batteries are not only extremely limited in their charge cycle capabilities (5000 cycles is considered absolutely the ragged edge of the chemistries ability) but the metals used to make the cells are very expensive, a finite resource, and very expensive to recover.
Personally I think for the last 100 years we have enjoyed an unprecedented ability to travel effortlessly wherever and whenever we like. At no other point in our history has this been possible and it's all down to a little puddle of oil left on the planet some millions of years ago.When it's gone or too expensive to fritter away, we'll be lucky if, as a race, we have anywhere near as much freedom. I think we are going to see a lot more mass transit solutions and ultimately a lot less personal transport options....I think we, today, are living at the tail end of the golden age of transport. In 100 years things will be a lot different...Buy a damned good bicycle while there is the energy to cheaply manufacture the steels!...Your grandchildren will thank you for it!
Posted: 07/12/2011 at 11:15