The best proverbs work both ways. For every silver lining, there’s always a cloud. It’s always dawn just after it’s darkest.
Here’s one I think I made up. Every age has its Titan. Or … every Titan shows his age.
The question left in the air at the end of last year was simply this: had we seen the old titan Rossi ousted? Was Stoner – all but the youngest ever Champion – at the start of a run of serial domination? Or was it all a trick of the light: a matter of electronics and tyres and horsepower, all coinciding for one year only in favour of the Ducati man?
Now the tests are well under way, and both have started much as they left off. Stoner has been fast everywhere, and blindingly so in Australia – almost a full second ahead of second man Hayden. Rossi was absent, having placed only sixth at the previous round in Malaysia (led by Hayden from Stoner). But when a depleted field resumed in Malaysia, Rossi was not only fastest, but going quicker than anyone had the week before.
In other words, neck and neck on lap times. But this time on equal tyres. It’s almost certain that the Yamaha will be down on power to the mighty Red Duke, but probably not as much as last year. And Rossi’s not scared of a speed deficit, if it is not too big. But he can do nothing about the age deficit – he turns 29 mid-February, Stoner is 22 until October.
The reign of year-after-year Champions does come to an end. For the previous two serial champs Doohan and Rainey, it was through injury; but predecessor King Kenny Roberts was eventually outfoxed by Freddie Spencer, doing to him exactly what he had done to Barry Sheene.
The greatest serial winner of them all was Rossi’s compatriot Giacomo Ago, who cakewalked to seven in a row on an infinitely superior MV Agusta, until he was ousted from the Italian team by thrusting Englishman Phil Read. Ago’s career, however, had a sting in the tail that proved his true mettle. At the age of 33, he came back on a Yamaha to win a hard-fought first-ever two-stroke 500 championship in 1975.
If Rossi can suppress the bounding Stoner this coming season, then he will finally take his place on the top step of the pantheon of racing gods, along with Geoff Duke, Mike Hailwood and Ago himself. If not – well, he’s only human.
What of the others? We can rely on a strong fight-back from those deposed former masters Michelin and Honda. It’s no coincidence that Hayden has been up at the sharp end of all the tests. Firstly, he never stops trying; and secondly the Honda’s clearly much better.
You have to wonder what team-mate Dani Pedrosa would be doing. But alas the teeny tiny former tiddler titan fell and broke “a small bone” in his wrist right at the start of everything (cruel commentators said that even if it had been his thigh, it would still be “a small bone”).
This is potentially ruinous to the guy who beat Stoner going away at the last GP of 2007.
We can guess about the others. Vermeulen might win a race or two in duff conditions; new Suzuki team-mate Capirossi won’t. Nor is Hopkins the man to give Kawasaki their first win, methinks. Melandri hasn’t made a brilliant start after switching to the Duke; but ex-250 newcomers Dovizioso (Honda) and Lorenzo (Yamaha) have been fast out of the box, and will be in the mix now and then.
James Toseland surprised everybody with his speed in Australia. Showed his potential, but history suggests he will be a relatively slow learner, though very thorough.
But here’s another guess for outsider of the year: watch out for Randy de Puniet, surly Frenchman par excellence. There’s a few people, including other riders, who think he might have stopped crashing so often, and that his new satellite Honda might see him rostrum-stepping more than once.
The other question is for the engineers. Which company can make a convincing alternative to Ducati’s desmodromic valve gear? Honda and Yamaha are both set to join Suzuki and Kawasaki in huffing and puffing away with pneumatic valve spring systems, which are good enough for F1 cars. Bikes need torquier power and better part-throttle performance, however, and there is more than a suggestion that the rapid valve opening and especially closing made possible by desmodromics is hugely valuable in this respect.
There was a time when Japan Inc was quite happy to copy European designs – or at least to copy and improve. In this case, however, they have been strangely reluctant – a reflection of the higher status of their own industry nowadays.
But I’m guessing that if they do go Ducati style, Honda will be the first to do so.
