After the bizarre, ghostly night race at Qatar and the seething cauldron at Jerez, MotoGP returns to some semblance of normality when it visits Estoril for the Portuguese Grand Prix. At Qatar, the night race entered completely unknown territory, the combination of falling temperatures and rising humidity making getting setup right a gamble at best. Then came Jerez, a track which places particular demands on the bikes and on setup. It also strongly favors Michelin, as it is one of the French tire company's nominated test tracks. And so to go to Estoril, a track with both a long, high-speed straight and a slow, intricate turns, and a track where nobody has done any testing for many months raises hopes of seeing a more normal result. More normal, and more representative of the relative strengths of the riders and teams.
Of course, nothing is ever that simple. For although Estoril should be a much more level playing field than either Qatar or Jerez were, the Portuguese track has plenty of quirks of its own. First and foremost of these is the weather. The Circuito do Estoril sits just a
stone's throw away from the Atlantic Ocean, albeit a very powerful throw of a small and aerodynamic stone. Once over the row of low hills which separate the track from the sea, there's nothing between yourself and Connecticut for thousands of miles.
As picturesque as ocean vistas can, they also have a flip side. For the energy which generates those majestic waves crashing upon the shore can also raise mighty towers of clouds and great gusting winds, which can then proceed to soak and batter the racetrack and riders, turning prior expectations on their head. All too often, the elements have had a decisive effect on racing at Estoril, the region's capricious weather catching many a racer out. The most recent victim was
Sete Gibernau, who crashed out of the lead in 2005 when he was the first of the field to hit the freshly-soaked Turn 1 just after it started to rain.
Whatever The Weather
But it is unfair to characterize Estoril solely in terms of its unpredictable weather conditions. For the circuit, which lies just west of the Portuguese capital Lisbon, is blessed with a layout which has provided us with some spectacular racing in the past. It starts with the front straight, one of the fastest of the season, which leads you down to the first possible spot for passing, the sharp right of
Turn 1. If your best efforts at braking harder and later into the turn than your rivals fail to get you ahead, or if, like Toni Elias in 2006, you found that you were so late on the brakes that you threatened to launch into the Atlantic, then all is not yet lost. Simply bide your time through Turn 2, and try your luck through the hairpin loops of
Turn 3 or Turn 4, both of which allow you to attack through a multitude of lines.
Of course, if you get through at Turn 3, the danger is that you surrender the better line for Turn 4, allowing your rival back past again, and on to the short back straight with the
fast right-hand kink. At the end, your next opportunity beckons, the double-apex left loop of
Turn 6, now christened Repsol Corner after the
infamous incident in 2006, in which Dani Pedrosa's momentary lapse of reason almost left Nicky Hayden's championship foundering in the gravel.
Failure at Turn 6 is not yet fatal. For if you can stay close through the next couple of right handers, then the combination of
Turns 9 and 10 offers you your best chance yet. The slow, uphill chicane is one of the best corners in racing, offering a brave and physical rider an opportunity to put an old-fashioned beating on his rivals, getting by with a classic block pass, then slamming the door brutally in their faces. If you have the nerve, you can win the race right here.
The Fast Show
There's only one small problem with being ahead out of Turn 10. You now have to hold off an enraged rival through the
Esses, where they will surely attempt to dish you out a dose of your own medicine, and then the
Parabolica, a long, fast right hander leading back onto the straight. Like the
Parabolica at Monza, there are plenty of lines through there, and getting past through the turn is not necessary. All you have to do is be close enough to pull out of the draft and whip past your opponent on the long drag down to the finish line. With 28 laps of the track to complete, you can spend all race practicing this maneuver so that by the time it really matters, you have it down pat.
With so many different places to pass, and each of them suiting very different kinds of bikes, almost everyone has a chance to pass somewhere. If your bike has great top speed, just wind her up down the front straight and pass your opponents on outright power. If stability under braking is what your machine does best, then there are the braking zones for Turn 1 and Turn 6. But if the bike has been built with agility in mind, there's the chicane and the Esses, or even Turns 3 and 4, and the run between them. And if all else fails, you can simply try the sheer guts option of the faster outside line round the already deceptively quick Parabolica.
Three's A Crowd
Happily for MotoGP fans, the varied nature of the Estoril track matches the varied skill sets and bikes of the main protagonists for Sunday's race down to a tee.
Casey Stoner's ability to get outstanding drive out of fast corners allied with the top speed of his Ducati means that the reigning champion will be able to match anyone down the front straight, and that if he has company going into that final turn, he's going to be a very hard man to beat.
Dani Pedrosa's blistering acceleration and smooth, fast style will give the winner of the Jerez race the edge out of the slower turns and through the fast kink down the back straight. While the agility of
Valentino Rossi's Yamaha, coupled with his ability to make almost impossible passes means that The Doctor can hustle through the chicane and round the Esses faster than any rider on track, and unlike last year, his M1 now has the beans to stay with the Ducati and the Honda down the front straight as well.
In fact, the 2008 Portuguese Grand Prix at Estoril is shaping up to be a repeat of the 2007 race of six months ago. In September last year, Valentino Rossi, Dani Pedrosa and Casey Stoner slugged it out almost to the end. Stoner had been the first to lose ground, as he struggled with a non-functioning slipper clutch on his Ducati, leaving him with next to no engine braking. Dani Pedrosa then chased Rossi all the way to the line, unable to get back past the Italian after Rossi finally won the overtaking battle with just two laps to go.
And if anything, the bikes are more evenly matched than ever. The Ducati is still the outright winner in terms of top speed, and Casey Stoner is still horribly quick into and out of the turns. After struggling a bit during preseason testing, Honda seem finally to have found a chassis and engine combination that works, and Dani Pedrosa's injured hand is nearly back to full strength. And Valentino Rossi's Yamaha now has sufficient speed to stay with the Ducati and Honda in a straight line, and Rossi has the Bridgestones which he longed for last year, allowing him to slug it out with Stoner on equal footing.
Place Your Bets
On the strength of last year's race, it would be foolish to bet against Valentino Rossi at a track where he has won five times previously. But Rossi's decision to switch tire manufacturers last year may come back to haunt him in Portugal: Bridgestone have never won a race at Estoril, leaving Rossi with a bigger mountain to climb than he might have wished for.
That's bad news for Casey Stoner, too, but what could be worse for the Australian was his performance at Jerez just two weeks ago. Stoner had an uncharacteristically poor weekend in Spain, crashing heavily, and running off the track twice to finish 11th. His frustration at his worst ever finish aboard the Ducati were evident, and Estoril will be a test of his mental resilience. If Stoner can bounce back in Portugal, he will be very hard to beat.
But it is probably Dani Pedrosa who is the clearest favorite to win at Estoril. The Spaniard is coming off a deeply impressive victory at Jerez, where he ran away with the race in the early stages. His hand is healing, the Honda is improving, and HRC are due to test the pneumatic valve engine after the race weekend, ready for the monster straights at Shanghai. Pedrosa could be on a roll.
Get Ready To Rumble!
If the promise of a close fight between the three favorites is tempting, the prospect of the rookies at Estoril is positively mouthwatering.
Andrea Dovizioso,
James Toseland and
Jorge Lorenzo have already shown that they are afraid of no one, and Estoril's tricky turns could be just the ticket for their particular brand of fresh-faced impetuosity. Andrea Dovizioso and Jorge Lorenzo could find themselves in a repeat of their 250 battles, as Dovizioso has to wring the last drop of performance out of his 2007 spec satellite Honda in his quest to defeat Jorge Lorenzo on the factory Yamaha. But the fight could just as easily go Dovizioso's way, as Estoril has never been kind to Lorenzo. Despite dominating the 250 class in both his championship years, Lorenzo has never managed better than 3rd place here in Portugal. Though the Spaniard will be looking to put that right, there will be a horde of rivals keen to capitalize on that perceived weakness.
But perhaps the best spectacle of the weekend could come from the Tech 3 Yamaha garage. With both
James Toseland and
Colin Edwards due to receive the pneumatic valve engined Yamaha M1, the Tech 3 pairing should have the speed to stay with the rest down the front straight at Estoril. But the fun comes round the back of the track, once they hit the chicane. In 2006, Colin Edwards put on a display of some of the finest block passing of recent years in holding off Hayden, Pedrosa and Elias through that chicane, his passes fair but brutal. And this year, his team mate should join in the fun. Chris Vermeulen has already complained about James Toseland's physical passing, after JT barged his way past at Jerez. If there is one corner in the whole of the season that suits tough passes, it is surely the chicane at Estoril. And if Toseland can learn the track fast enough, a track that he has never ridden at before, he should put on a show of good old-fashioned street brawling racing round that last section of track, of the kind that fans just love to watch.
Two years ago, Colin Edwards' antics were aimed at holding off
Nicky Hayden, and allowing his then team mate Valentino Rossi to get away. This year, Edwards won't be defending for anyone, but he could still find himself getting tangled up with the Kentucky Kid. Estoril is a track which suits Hayden, despite it holding bad memories of being taken out by his team mate, and seeing the title slipping out of his hands. After a 4th place here last year, and a 4th place last time out at Jerez, the American will surely be out for vengeance in Portugal, and looking for a podium.
Halfway House
A podium would suit
Loris Capirossi and
John Hopkins just fine. But unfortunately for the two veterans - one rather more of a veteran than the other - both men are still hard at work developing a bike which isn't quite there yet. Capirex was delighted with his 5th place at Jerez two weeks ago, but in general the Suzuki has been disappointing, after showing such promise last year. And Hopper is in a similar situation, waiting for improvements in both his health and the bike. The groin injury the American suffered is still painful and taking a long time to heal, and the Kawasaki is close, but not quite there. Kawasaki have been publicly testing their fantastic-sounding
screamer engine, which should deliver on both power and in saving fuel, but still has some way to go before it is ready to race. The best both men can hope for is to be fighting for points behind the front runners.
Their respective team mates find themselves in much the same boat. Suzuki's
Chris Vermeulen and Kawasaki's
Ant West were hoping to be much closer to the front at the start of the season, but both men are not where they want to be. Vermeulen is by far the better of the pair, managing to run close to his team mate, if not actually outshine him. Ant West, on the other hand, has had a nightmare of a season so far, only capable of fighting to stay out of last with the Alice Ducatis. West has completely lost his confidence, in both the bike and his own ability to ride. Things have gotten so bad that the Australian will be trying a new, untested chassis at Estoril, gambling on a softer chassis restoring his confidence.
But what both Vermeulen and West really need is for Estoril's notoriously capricious weather to play a part. If it rains, then Vermeulen and West stop being also-rans, and suddenly become favorites for a victory. If you pass through the paddock late Saturday night, you can be fairly sure of hearing the two Australians performing a rain dance in their motorhomes.
Lasciate Ogne Speranza
Not even rain could help salvage the hopes of the other Ducatis.
Marco Melandri,
Toni Elias and
Sylvain Guintoli have had a nightmare of a season so far on the Ducati GP8, running miles off the pace on the machine which is winning races in the hands of Casey Stoner. The qualifying practice at Jerez was the low point for Melandri, the Italian sitting in his pits after a crash with a look of utter despair on his face.
But help could be at hand. Filippo Preziosi, Ducati's engineering mastermind, has finally conceded that Ducati's championship-winning bike only really suits a single rider. The bike is so aggressive, both in its power delivery and in the stiffness of its chassis, that it is extremely difficult to ride. Unless, that is, you are Casey Stoner, who likes the immediacy of the feedback he gets from the stiff frame and lightning throttle response. And so Preziosi has promised to develop a softened version of the bike for Marco Melandri, in the hope that Melandri can regain some confidence, and find some of the form which he surely still has. If they succeed, then maybe that same softer chassis might find its way down to the Alice Ducati team, and solve some of that team's woes as well. But this weekend, it looks like Toni Elias, the
2006 winner of the Estoril round, will be struggling just to score points.
High Hopes
And so expectations are high for this Sunday's race in Portugal. All the ingredients for a fantastic race are present: we have three closely-matched favorites, all with a great deal to prove; we have a chasing pack of up-and-coming youngsters, all hungry for glory; we have a sprinkling of seasoned veterans, with a knack for pulling rabbits out of hats. But most of all, we have a glorious, intricate, complex racetrack, a circuit full of contradictions. The track with the slowest average speed of the season, coupled with one of the fastest straights of the year. A track which demands impossible compromises from bike setup, and a which richly rewards your strengths as a rider, while punishing your weaknesses mercilessly.
And added to all that, a track sat next to a notoriously treacherous ocean, where the weather can change at a moment's notice. It's almost as if Nature stands ready to lend a hand, just in case the racing gets predictable. The only sure thing on Sunday is that anything could happen. It should be a gripping spectacle.
Read more of David Emmett's articles over on
MotoGPMatters.com.
