The 2007 MotoGP season is upon us. Get ready!
The 2007 MotoGP season has been a long time coming. It has been on the minds of fans and followers since before the 2006 season, for a lot of very good reasons. As an appetizer, there was the knowledge that the cream of the 2005 250 class would be up to speed, in every sense, after a full year of learning the four-stroke ropes. Then there was the meaty issue of the new 800s: what would they be like, and how would riding styles have to change to make them really fast? And finally, to top it all off, the tantalizing question of whether Valentino Rossi, the man who had ruled MotoGP for so long, would still be in the series for 2007.
Now the wait is over, the season is upon us, and we have answers to many of those questions. And those answers have only served to make the anticipation greater. The 800s are already smashing lap records, and want to be ridden like 250s, favoring riders like Dani Pedrosa, Casey Stoner, and Randy de Puniet, last year's rookies. Valentino Rossi is staying in MotoGP, not just for 2007, but through 2008 as well. And spicing it up even further, we have a surprise MotoGP world champion in Nicky Hayden, a man who through consistency, a little luck and sheer hard work won the title back for Honda for the first time since The Doctor deserted them. So, with so much to look forward to, what does the 2007 MotoGP world championship have in store?
Less Is More
The most talked about change to this year's championship is the reduction in capacity. When the reduction was announced, it was feared that the retirement of the big, fire-breathing 990s would make for a softer, easier class. But the truth of the matter is that the change is likely to make the racing closer and more spectacular.
The 990s had so much horsepower that they could never get it all down on to the track, and the ponies were kept on a tight rein through the use of some pretty intrusive electronics. Sophisticated traction control systems were just about the only way make the 990s rideable, and those electronics turned the slavering beasts into mild-mannered, slobbering pets: gone were the days of sudden and spectacular dismounts, with unseated riders being tossed in the air; in their stead came lowsides caused by riders losing the front, from trying to push just that little bit harder.
Knowing that the reduction in capacity would mean a sizeable reduction in horsepower, the factories have tried to compensate by upping the engines' state of tune, letting the engines rev a couple of thousand revs higher, and squeezing more power from the top end. This has made the bikes peakier, and combined with better grip from tires designed to deal with 40+ more horsepower, and less gyroscopic effects from smaller and lighter moving parts in the engine, the new 800 cc bikes are behaving more and more like 250cc two strokes, requiring riders to maintain momentum through the corners. This means that braking later, carrying more speed into the corners, and getting on the gas earlier out of corners. Smoothness and faster lines work best, as there's less to be gained by standing the bike up to get on the gas early.
One rather surprising side effect of these changes has been the return of the highside, as demonstrated so forcefully by John Hopkins during the tests at Qatar in February. The irony is that because the 800s make less horsepower and less torque than the old bikes, the traction control systems have been toned down, and are triggered much less easily. But because the engines are having to rev higher to make the horses, when the power does arrive, it does so more abruptly, which can cause the rear end to lose traction, then grip again, catapulting the hapless rider into the air and onto the tarmac.
This tendency may possibly be made worse by the reduction in fuel capacity, from 22 liters to 21. Throughout the preseason tests, rumors have abounded that various bikes (and the Ducati in particular) are having trouble with fuel consumption. Some observers even speculated that the Ducatis were not capable of running a full race, as the race simulation runs the Ducatis made kept falling stubbornly short of a full race distance. The problem is caused, ironically, by the reduction in capacity: With less power, the 800s spend more time with the throttle wide open. This drains the fuel quicker, of which they have less. Some pretty desperate measures are being taken in an attempt to save fuel wherever possible, most obviously going in to corners. Ducati have resurrected their "tickover clutch", tested and discarded at Jerez in 2005, which basically disengages the clutch under braking, leaving the bike with no engine braking at all. The advantage to this design is the significant reduction in fuel consumption under braking, but the disadvantage comes when you let of the brakes. The engine has to fire up instantly to a speed matching the bike speed, otherwise the tire chirps and the rider gets spat off. Capirossi's crash during qualifying at the 2005 Jerez round made these shortcomings quite painfully clear.
Other manufacturers, faced with the same problems, are investing a lot of effort in developing engine mapping, trying to reduce fuel consumption wherever possible. Although the current state of engine management systems means that bikes are unlikely to run out of fuel, as Sete Gibernau did so spectacularly in Brno in 2005, these systems could start limiting power outputs as the race progresses. If that happens, the dicing we saw over the last few laps of several races last year could be made even more exciting, with the winner only absolutely sure of victory once they've crossed the finish line.
If the bikes are different, the riders seem all too familiar. Although the names changed at a number of teams over the winter, it was more a case of shuffling the pack than changing the game. Sete Gibernau was the only big name to leave the series, retiring from racing after suffering yet another injured collar bone from a crash caused, ironically enough, by his replacement at Ducati, Casey Stoner. Stoner's switch to Ducati triggered a quick game of musical chairs, with Stoner's LCR Honda ride taken by Carlos Checa, and Checa's Tech 3 Yamaha ride taken by Makoto Tamada, who had been previously dumped by Konica Minolta Honda to make way for Shinya Nakano.
And most of the newcomers are familiar names too. Jeremy McWilliams, Andrew Pitt and Olivier Jacque have all ridden in the series before, though some are more recent departures than others. The only truly fresh face this year is young Frenchman Sylvain Guintoli, making the step from the 250 class to partner Tamada at Tech 3 Yamaha.
Fresh Blood
The entry of Ilmor into MotoGP caused quite a sensation last year. The introduction of the 800s looked like providing an influx of fresh blood into MotoGP, signalling an end to the decline in grid sizes which had been underway for the previous several years. What's more, the Ilmor had been designed and built by Mario Illien, a man with a proven track record in Formula 1. Illien claimed he had learned from the previous efforts of Formula 1 designers, and had focused on rideability over sheer power. The interest was phenomenal at Estoril, where the bike got its first public race, going up against the bigger, more powerful 990s, as it was thought that the Ilmor would provide a clue to just how fast the 800s were going to be.
We were to be disappointed. The bike was 5 seconds off the pace, and although it finished, scoring points on its first outing, it finished 4 laps behind the field, after Garry McCoy, who had been brought in to ride the Ilmor, came into the pits to have electrical problems sorted. But there was still comfort to be found in the thought that maybe the rest of the 800s would also be several seconds slower than the old bikes. But once the big names rolled out the 800s at Valencia, and started running close to 990 pace straight out the box, it became painfully clear that Ilmor really does have a long way to go.
The good news, for the team, at any rate, is that Ilmor has closed the gap a little over the course of winter testing. While they were still some 5 seconds off the pace at Valencia, by the time the IRTA tests completed, the Ilmors were running some 3.5 seconds off the race pace of the rest. The bad news is, the rest of the field is getting quicker at every outing.
To help them close the gap, Ilmor contracted the 42 year-old MotoGP veteran (in every sense of the word) Jeremy McWilliams, who seems to be perenially available for this type of gig, due to his advanced years, and former World Supersport champion Andrew Pitt, who was dumped from the Yamaha World Superbike team rather summarily to make way for Troy Corser, despite having been a race winner for them. Ilmor's stated reason for dropping the Sultan Of Slide, Garry McCoy, and contracting McWilliams and Pitt is their experience and skill at developing a motorcycle. With the form Ilmor has shown so far, they will need all the help they can get.
Onwards And Upwards
One team relieved by the appearance of Ilmor late last season were perennial backmarkers Pramac d'Antin Ducati. McCoy's nursing the underpowered Ilmor X3 round Estoril was the breakthrough which Jose Luis Cardoso needed to finally break his streak of last places. After Cardoso's unsurprising departure from the team, a long stream of rumors ensued about who would be riding for d'Antin in 2007, with names such as Max Biaggi, James Toseland, Neil Hodgson, and Alex Barros all bandied about. No one took the rumors very seriously, though as several seasons in the nether regions of MotoGP had seriously tarnished the team's reputation, and a year riding round at the back of the field was thought to be a pretty unappealing prospect for names of such stature.
But as the 2006 season ended, the d'Antin team announced a number of key changes, which put quite a different face on things: Firstly, Pramac, the Italian industrial power systems company who sponsor the team, announced they would be buying a big stake in the team, and putting more money in. Shortly afterwards, Luis d'Antin announced the team would be using Bridgestone tires in 2007, instead of the ill-fated Dunlops on which they had struggled. Another key change was an increase in support from the Ducati factory, building a closer relationship, and allowing access to better equipment.
The final bombshell was the signing of Alex Barros, a proven MotoGP winner returning to the class from World Superbikes. Suddenly, last year's back markers were starting to look like this year's podium candidates. And the times set in testing so far have confirmed that the switch to 800s have come as a godsend to d'Antin. Though less impressive at Jerez, both Alex Barros and Alex Hofmann have gone faster than the works Ducati at a couple of tests. The team is obviously on more equal machinery this year, helped by the fact that there are no 2006 800s to be palmed off with, but the switch to Bridgestones has been a major contributing factor to their early form.
As Barros will be working closely with Ducati this season, to help developing the GP07, and on competitive rubber, the Brazilian has to be considered a serious threat this year. His year in World Superbikes showed he still has the determination and skill to fight his way to the front of the pack. Though probably not a title candidate, Barros' experience and talent make him likely to be a podium regular. And if we have a couple of wet races, his place on the podium could be the very top step.
Barros' team mate Hofmann has had a torrid time in MotoGP over the past few years. It is whispered that the only reason he got to stay in MotoGP is to keep interest in the series alive in Germany, for the sake of lucrative TV contracts, but that is a rather cruel overstatement of the case. Although Hofmann is never going to be world champion, barring an extraordinarily freakish chain of events, he has proven to be reliably fast, and having taken the traditional path to MotoGP, through the 125 and 250 classes, he has the skill set to ride the new 800s. He won't win races, but he should hit the top 10, and even the top 5 on occasion.
But the real championship focus for Ducati will be the factory Marlboro team. Ducati have reverted to a screamer configuration for the GP07, with the cylinder pairs firing alternately, instead of close to simultaneously, in a chase for power. The lower power and torque numbers reduce the the traction and tire wear benefits to be gained from a big bang configuration. But this has brought its own set of problems. Fuel consumption is an issue, as mentioned above, but Ducati have also struggled with the engine management package during preseason testing, and Stoner and Capirossi's positions on the timesheets have oscillated from top to bottom from test to test. But as the season proper approaches, most of the bugs have been ironed out, and the Bolognese bikes are starting to look as competitive as ever.
If the Ducatis are competitive, the riders are even more so. If it hadn't been for the corner chaos at Catalunya, Loris Capirossi might have made the already tight 2006 title fight even closer. Despite riding hurt for several races, Capirex had another great season, totally dominant at some circuits, and though weaker at others, still improving over the season before. Give Capirossi a gap at tracks he is strong at, and he is off into the distance like a cowboy in the last reel. The only way to stop him, as Valentino Rossi so effectively demonstrated, is to engage him in combat. Start mixing it up with Capirex, and it breaks his rhythm, making for some spectacular dogfights, but fights which the Italian veteran has a tendency to lose. And Capirossi has one more potential strike against him this year: he is due to become a father this year. They say that your first child puts a second on your lap times, and if this piece of old racer wisdom is true, Capirossi's title run could be over by the summer.
If Capirossi's biggest problem last year was a single crash, his team mate saw plenty of crashes. Casey Stoner caused almost as big a sensation in his debut year as his fellow 250 debutant, Dani Pedrosa. But Stoner's forward progress seemed continually impeded by his tendency to push too hard, lose the front wheel, and head off into the gravel. Various wags around the paddock joked that Stoner's signing was because Livio Suppo had shares in a carbon fibre bodywork company, such was his reputation. But Stoner's switch to Ducati could see a drastic reduction in his excursions into the scenery. Most of Stoner's 2006 crashes were due to losing the front Michelin on his Honda. Michelin's front tire has been their weakest point for several years now, which is main reason the French tire maker is switching to a 16" front for the 2007 season. The grip is good, but it lacks feel, meaning that you reach, and exceed, the limits almost without warning. Bridgestone, on the other hand, is renowned for the excellent feedback from its front tire. With Stoner on the Bridgestone-shod Ducati, he should be able to get enough feedback from the front to back off in time, while still staying fast enough to stick with the front runners. Though Stoner's new found front end confidence will see him staying on the bike more, he propensity to hit the dirt won't just disappear overnight. 2007 is likely to see the young Australian win his first race, but it's too early for him to start winning titles. To do that, he needs to keep it on track a lot more often.
The French Connection
The Kawasaki team's preseason has been dogged by controversy. It started with rumors about Kawasaki's 800 not being anywhere near ready, as it failed to show up at the early tests. Shortly afterwards, Harald Eckl, the man who had run the team since the factory entered MotoGP back in 2003, was fired rather acrimoniously, with accusations that Eckl had been spending more of his time and effort helping the Ilmor SRT team rather than his own Kawasaki team. Then, when the new Kawasaki finally did appear, at the Sepang test in November, it ran for only a few laps before making a premature and smokey exit, in obvious need of a lot more work.
But since testing recommenced after the winter ban, things have turned around for the team. Randy de Puniet has been setting highly creditable times, and the bike has run without any serious problems throughout the tests, both in qualifying trim and for longer race runs. This may seem surprising, given the ZX-RR's inauspicious entry into the 800 era, but it's a logical consequence of Kawasaki's chosen development path from 2006. Knowing that they could not turn the underpowered 990 into a race winner in its last season, they decided instead to focus their efforts into producing a bike which would be ready to run in the 800 class, a strategy also taken by Suzuki. And once the ZX-RR 800 finally did emerge, it was virtually indistinguishable from the old bike. Persistent rumors even suggested that Kawasaki gave their 800 a secret outing last season. Whether those rumors are true or not, the Kawasaki is certainly looking more competitive than it was last year.
And in Randy de Puniet, Team Kawasaki has a rider who can ride the new bike fast. His rookie year in MotoGP was a mixed bag, often qualifying well, but crashing out in the race. Another 250 rider, he showed plenty of corner speed last year, and should suit the new 800 well. Kawasaki expect good things from de Puniet this year, and if he can keep the bike out of the kitty litter, he could cause a few upsets this year.
De Puniet's team mate is another Frenchman, Olivier Jacque. Former 250 world champion Jacque has spent the last two years working as a test rider, and OJ back to racing is a logical move for Kawasaki, who needed to find a replacement for Shinya Nakano at short notice. But two years out of active racing is a long time, and it shows in the times OJ has set during testing so far. The French veteran has been significantly slower than his team mate, and generally not a great deal faster than the Ilmors. Though his experience in 250s should stand him in good stead, the best he can hope for this season is the occasional spot in the top 10.
Rizla Suzuki is the other team that spent the 2006 season working on their 2007 bike. Much of the technology being used on the 800 cc bike was tested during last year, sometimes highly visibly. The kicking John Hopkins delivered so publicly, and justifiably to his bike in Qatar last season was the aftermath of a string of engine failures that weekend, most of which were caused by the pneumatic valve springs being used. Pneumatic valves are one of the technologies teams are using to deal with the 18,000+ rev ranges needed to eke sufficient power out of the smaller engines, and testing it during a season in which they had little chance of a title made a lot more sense than trying to squeeze the utmost out of the old GSV-R 990, and still coming up short.
And in the early testing, Suzuki's strategy seemed to have paid off. The Suzukis were either at or close to the top of the timesheets at all of the tests, until the MotoGP circus visited Phillip Island in Australia. The Suzukis have historically run very badly there, and this test was no exception, looking at the headline times. But compare the Suzuki times to their previous performances there, and they have made large steps forward. At Qatar and Jerez, their progress seemed to have stagnated, especially after John Hopkins broke a wrist in a crash at Qatar. This is a worrying echo of previous years, when Suzuki riders were fast in early tests, but couldn't repeat that speed once racing began in earnest.
For Hopkins, a broken wrist is a frustrating start to a promising season. Big things were expected of Hopper when he moved to MotoGP, but the Suzuki's failure to perform has stood in his way every season so far. Before his injury, 2007 looked like being the first season where Hopkins would be where he believes he belongs: in the race for the world championship. Hopkins' style is already based on maximizing corner speed, as it was the only way he could keep up with the more powerful Hondas, Yamahas and Ducatis, and so he is a natural fit for the new smaller bikes. If the Suzuki can deliver on its early promise, and Hopper recovers quickly from his broken bones, the Anglo-American will be a force to be reckoned with.
Back in Superbikes, Chris Vermeulen was also a major factor at every race. When he left the promise of a Honda MotoGP ride if he stayed in World Superbikes for one more year to take a chance on the underperforming Suzuki, most people thought it a bad move. But Vermeulen's choice worked out pretty well in his first season, taking a pole in only his 3rd MotoGP start, coming close to a podium at Laguna Seca, and finally getting on the podium at Phillip Island. Anyone who has followed Vermeulen's progress through World Supersport and Superbikes knows just how talented he is, and if the Suzuki is good, then he'll have a chance to disprove the theory that the only route into MotoGP in the 800 era is through the 250 class, where corner speed is king. He carries the secret hopes of many riders working their way up through the Superbike classes, for a top result will open up the way for them too. His times in testing so far demonstrate that at the right track, he can run with the very best. But his season will depend on how he does at the wrong tracks, too.
Be Careful What You Ask For
The 800s were Honda's idea. They pushed for the rule change through the MSMA, the manufacturer's association, and as Honda had a 990 cc V5, it was generally assumed that Honda would simply drop a cylinder and walk off with the first 800 cc championship. After all, Nicky Hayden had spent much of his championship year developing most of the features of the bike which was to become the RC212V. The truly paranoid among the MotoGP faithful whispered darkly that the change was engineered by Honda solely to suit Dani Pedrosa, their anointed future world champion.
Gratifyingly, creating a race-winning 800cc racing motorcycle is nowhere near as easy as just dropping the middle front cylinder from the RC211V. Since the moment the V4 RC212V was introduced, the riders have complained about a lack of power and mid-range punch. Where the consensus view was that Honda would walk 2007, testing showed a woeful picture for HRC, with the Hondas generally languishing somewhere mid-pack and below in the timesheets. The only exception to this decidedly lackluster performance was the paranoid's favorite, Dani Pedrosa. The conspiracy theorists felt vindicated, and smugly announced this to the world. But the racing has not yet begun.
Out Of The Frying Pan
Shinya Nakano finally left Kawasaki after years of patiently waiting for the green machine to get up to speed. A move to the Konica Minolta team to ride a Honda seemed like a route to instant success. So we can only imagine Nakano's frustration at discovering that, no sooner does he arrive aboard the RC212V, than the Honda starts lagging behind the competition. And to add insult to injury, his former team mate Randy de Puniet has been faster in every test session but one on the bike Nakano left behind.
Nakano's problem is not just the Honda, though, as he is also having trouble coming to terms with the Michelin tires, as did the last rider to switch from Bridgestone to Michelin, Makoto Tamada. Ironically, Tamada was fired by Konica Minolta for not living up to expectations, after never getting to feel confident in the front end, exactly the complaint which Nakano has voiced. There may be hope in sight for Nakano yet, as Michelin's new 16" front tire is aimed at addressing exactly this problem. If Michelin can get the tire to work, and Nakano can gain confidence in the front-end feel, then Super Shinya could get back in contention. Nakano is another rider who excels at holding corner speed, and his technical style should suit the new 800s perfectly. If the bike and the tires start to gell, then Nakano could start to win the races which so many people believe him capable of.
Size Zero
For some riders, the Honda's early lack of power is exacerbated by its tiny size. Carlos Checa is one of the tallest of the riders in the paddock, and together with the other tall Honda rider, Nicky Hayden, is have a great deal of difficulty in fitting the bike. The minuscule fairing is the biggest problem, making it impossible for anyone taller than about 5'6" to tuck out of the wind on fast straights, but the whole tank and seat assembly has been shortened to centralize mass, including the mass of the rider. This leaves Checa perched on the bike, with little room to move about. Partly to compensate for this, and the reduced power of the 800cc bike, Checa has lost 7 pounds, and is looking very sharp-featured and trim.
Checa earned his Honda ride by having a better than expected season on the underwhelming Dunlop tires. Thanks partly to his hard work, the Dunlops made big strides forward, getting closer to being competitive with Michelin and Bridgestone. Once Casey Stoner's place at LCR Honda became vacant, Carlos Checa was the obvious choice. Checa's hard work at Tech 3 Yamaha was the saving of his career, as it imbued the Spaniard with a determination he rarely showed during his years at Ducati and Yamaha. Where previously he had seemed content to run in 5th or 6th place, not showing any progression as a rider, in 2006, he made a big step up through sheer willpower. If he can continue to show that kind of true grit, then he could turn into a podium regular once again.
At Gresini Honda, it was all change. Though the rider line-up stayed the same, Gresini changed tires and sponsors. Both of these are momentous changes, but for different reasons. Switching tires, from Michelin to Bridgestone, is a big move for Gresini and for Bridgestone, with the Japanese tire maker finally getting access to the Hondas again after Tamada switched to Michelins in 2005. So far, Melandri has done well on the Bridgestones, making the decision look like a pretty good gamble so far.
The change of sponsorship is more important. The withdrawal from MotoGP of Fortuna, a Spanish tobacco brand, leaves only one tobacco sponsor remaining in the class. This is a logical result of legislators around the world placing ever-tighter controls on tobacco advertising, making racing sponsorship less and less appealing. With the tobacco money drying up, teams were left wondering where their funding would come from in the future. The answer, in Gresini's case, is consumer electronics. Hannspree is a Korean manufacturer of LCD TV and computer screens, and their involvement in both MotoGP and World Superbikes points to two things: That there is money for motorcycle racing out there, if the right companies are approached with the right deal; and that a route into MotoGP from World Superbikes has opened up for James Toseland.
The obvious candidate to make way for Toseland would be Toni Elias. Elias had a very erratic season last year, results varying each weekend, taking top 5 spots some weeks, while finishing 15th on others. What saved his season, and probably his job in 2006 was that astonishing win in Estoril, riding the raggedest of ragged edges all the way to the closest win in MotoGP history, coincidentally taking the 5 points from Valentino Rossi by which his title defense was later to fail. That performance left no doubt about his potential, but the question marks about his consistency remain. Elias could well end up on the podium again this year, but unless he stops finishing 15th as well, he could find it harder to hold on to his job at the end of 2007.
And inconsistency seems to run in the family at Gresini: Marco Melandri is another rider who has both ups and downs. Winning 3 races in 2006, as well as providing the image of the season with his one-handed tire-smoking last turn display at Phillip Island, he still only ended up 4th in the championship, after finishing 2nd to Valentino Rossi the year before. Balancing his 3 wins were a string of 7th and worse places which ruled him out of title contention far too early. Such is his reputation that the satirical site MotoGPNews.com ascribes his results to something called an MRNG, the Melandri Random Number Generator, a mysterious process by which Melandri can finish anywhere, at any track, for no apparent reason. Although Melandri is a safe bet for at least one win again this year, if he wants to be a title contender again this year, he'll have to work hard at his consistency.
A House Divided
If Honda wants to prolong its MotoGP title, then the Repsol Honda team holds their biggest hope. With reigning World Champion Nicky Hayden, and three times World Champion Dani Pedrosa, who now has a year's experience in the premier class, the Repsol team has two of the prime contenders to take the crown. But Repsol is less of a team than it should be. Although the events of Estoril last year were mostly forgiven after Hayden took the title a race later, they were far from forgotten. The atmosphere in the Repsol garage is cool, with Hayden and Pedrosa choosing largely to ignore each other, unless absolutely necessary. Perhaps the most divisive factor in the team is Alberto Puig, Pedrosa's mentor. He holds a Rasputin-like sway over the young Spaniard, and seems to be working constantly behind the scenes to push Pedrosa's interests and undermine Hayden's position.
Although Puig has helped put Pedrosa in the position he is in today, Puig's assistance may start to become more of a hindrance than a help over the coming season. Pedrosa proved his talent beyond any doubt last season, winning in China and at Donington, and being a consistent front-runner. But he also showed the first hints of weakness, after Valentino Rossi turned on the mind games half way through the season. In the weeks after Rossi's huge burnout at Donington, robbing Pedrosa of the limelight he most definitely deserved after the closest thing to a perfect race, Pedrosa started to complain about the behavior of his competitors. He complained about the robustness of the passing that was going on, a rather strange complaint for someone who had come up from the smaller classes, where the sight of 5 or 6 riders all trying to fit into the same space through a turn is all too common.
And now, Pedrosa will be a serious contender. He bears the weight of expectations of his home nation, the MotoGP-mad Spain, hungry for success after taking both titles in the 125 and 250 classes last year. Added to this, Rossi will be ramping up the voodoo, hoping to do to Pedrosa what he did so successfully to Biaggi and Gibernau previously. If Pedrosa can withstand this psychological onslaught, he stands a very good chance of becoming the first Spanish MotoGP champion since Alex Criville in 1999. However, with Puig whispering in Pedrosa's ear that he deserves to be treated with more respect, Rossi's head games could be turn out to be extremely effective. The 2007 MotoGP season will be the making of Dani Pedrosa: He will either finish first or second, or he could end up frustrated and broken, much further back than Pedrosa, Puig or Spain wants and expects.
On the other side of the garage sits a man who knows just how to handle mind games. Nicky Hayden rode against Mat Mladin in the AMA Superbike series, perhaps the most psychologically aggressive rider for many years, and still managed to win a title. Most of that is down to Hayden's easy-going nature: he isn't ruffled by people bad-mouthing him, and so it's a waste of time trying to use that against him. But Hayden has more to contend with than mind games. He too has the weight of a nation's expectations upon him, though unlike Pedrosa, motorcycle racing's place as a minority interest in the US gives him a little more breathing space. But he is still the champion of the world, and has stated he will want to put up a worthy title defense. The question is, will Hayden try his proven formula of consistent podium and top 5 finishes, which won him the title, as well as a firestorm of criticism last year, or will he go all out to try and win every race, risking crashes and DNFs to put the #1 plate on the #1 podium step? Hayden showed he can ride that aggressively at Assen and Laguna Seca, and at Estoril and Valencia before crashes changed the situation. US fans would love to see him ride like that all year. And with Valentino Rossi and Dani Pedrosa breathing down his neck, attack may well be the best form of defense. If Hayden wants to retain his title, he has a very long, and very hard road ahead.
This time last year came the first inklings that all was not well with Yamaha. Though they had done well in early tests, Michelin brought a new tire to Jerez, and the Yamaha house of cards shook apart in a wave of tire-induced vibration. It took them half a season to get back into contention, and they came within a whisker of getting away with it.
This year, things are different. For a start, Valentino Rossi has removed all distractions by declaring tht he will be staying in MotoGP for this season and next, so there will be no more time split between MotoGP and Formula 1. And Yamaha have used the solid basis of the 990 M1 to build what Rossi has called the best bike he has ever ridden. Any lingering doubts about Yamaha's focus have been removed, and Rossi's astonishing, record-breaking lap of Jerez proved that the Yamaha 800 is ready to race. And it's not just Rossi: at the Sepang tests, Colin Edwards set a blistering pace, demonstrating that the bike is in good shape, no matter who is aboard.
The Rightful Owner
Losing the MotoGP championship concentrated Valentino Rossi's mind. He returned to testing utterly determined, and sporting an interesting helmet and fairing design. Gone were the brighter sun and moon colors, and in its place is a dark theme, with the handle of a medieval sword prominently displayed. Emblazoned upon the blade of the sword was the number 1, scratched out. The message was clear: Rossi is on a mission to reclaim Excalibur, the sword which bestows leadership over the world of men. With the Yamaha in such great form, And Rossi showing such serious determination, only the very foolish would bet against the 5-time champion.
First, though, there is the small matter of Dani Pedrosa. That Rossi regards Pedrosa as the greatest threat was made abundantly clear by his treatment of him last year. His burnout in the winner's circle at Donington, his brutal mugging of Pedrosa during Le Mans and Brno, his protestations of innocence over the chair incident at Sepang, and a string of subtle remarks all seem to be part of his psychological offensive. Given Rossi's history of success, breaking Sete Gibernau's resistance and enraging Max Biaggi into being sacked, Pedrosa's chances do not look good.
One man who is safe from Rossi's voodoo is Colin Edwards. Edwards and Rossi have an excellent working relationship, and Edwards provided invaluable assistance at Estoril. Edwards' season last year suffered under Yamaha's failure. Once the 2006 M1 showed the symptoms of debilitating chatter, making the bike almost unrideable at the limit, all of Yamaha's attention was turned to getting Valentino Rossi's bike competitive, and getting his title defense back on track. This left Edwards struggling with old and defective material, often leaving the Texan limping around uncharacteristically in the second half of the field. And the one chance that Edwards got to race at the front he managed to ruin, by getting on the gas too early and running off the track in the last chicane at Assen.
The 2007 Yamaha looks like the best bike of the field, and so Edwards must feel confident he can make up for that costly mistake. He has spent that past two seasons trying to learn to ride the M1 more like a 250, carrying more corner speed, and using the throttle less to turn. With those lessons learnt, little stands in the way of Edwards taking his maiden MotoGP race win this year. The title is out of the question, as Edwards understands all too well, but he has already expressed the hope of Yamaha taking a championship one-two, and frankly, that's no idle hope.
Development Aid
Though the Yamaha be ever so good, the Tech 3 Yamaha team will not be in a position to pluck the fruits of a fast bike. For Makoto Tamada and Sylvain Guintoli will be hard at work developing the Dunlop tires, attempting to make them competitive. The new tire regulations, which limit tire manufacturers with recent wins to providing 14 front and 17 rear tires to each rider, have been designed to help Dunlop, who can provide unlimited numbers of tires over the course of a weekend. The gap with Bridgestone and Michelin has been closing recently, and the rule changes should help Dunlop catch up a little quicker.
Makoto Tamada will be the prime beneficiary of any progress. The Japanese rider previously won races on Bridgestones, but suffered with a lack of front end feel after switching to Michelins. The Dunlop riders last year were fairly happy with the feel they got from the front, so that should help Tamada, and his front-end biased, 250 riding style. He will be keen to restore his reputation, after two faceless seasons aboard the Michelin-shod Honda, but the Dunlops will make that difficult. If he can emulate Carlos Checa, the man whose place he took, and score a few top 10 places, he will be well on his way to repudiating the criticism he has faced. But if he has yet another faceless season, it could well be his last in MotoGP.
Sylvain Guintoli, Tamada's team mate, faces his first season in MotoGP. Another rider to come from the 250 class, he should already have the necessary corner speed. But like Stoner and de Puniet before him, he will face a steep learning curve. Guintoli finished a respectable 9th in 250s last year, but crashed a couple of times. His most obvious goal will be to finish consistently ahead of the Ilmors. Any more than that, and he can consider his season a success.
Bring It On
2007 looks like being the most unpredictable MotoGP season for a long time. Valentino Rossi's dominance ended unexpectedly last year, throwing up a new champion, and a host of new challengers. This year those new challengers and the familiar old guard are all on new machinery, with a new set of tire regulations to deal with, introducing a thousand new factors and a host of new possibilities.
It would take a great deal of courage to bet against Valentino Rossi winning the championship, but even more to ignore the raw talent of Dani Pedrosa, or the determination of Nicky Hayden to defend his title. If the Suzuki's early testing results are any indication, the Hamamatsu factory could rain on both Yamaha and Honda's parade. And it's not inconceivable that Kawasaki could throw up a few surprises.
In just a few more days, the feints will end, and battle will be joined. We await with baited breath. It's going to be one hell of a season.
